私营企业投资基础设施项目的动态关系研究--以温州地区为例

Study on the Dynamic Relationship of Private Enterprises' Investments in Infrastructure Construction Projects—Taking Wenzhou as an Example

以私营资本雄厚的温州地区为例,采用2013—2015年温州市的私营企业投资航天、铁路和船舶等基础产业的数据,运用协整理论、格兰杰关系检验以及误差修正模型,在分析近24个月私营企业投资基础设施项目的信息熵和均衡度的基础上,进一步检验私营企业投资额和经济产出额之间的动态关系。结果表明:1私营企业投资到基础设施项目建设中的程度会增加、结构趋于平衡,且随着时间的推移,经济发展的步伐加快,投资结构也会调整;2私营企业对航天、铁路以及船舶的投资额均能引起基础设施产出额的增长,且均具有单向的影响;3温州私营企业投资额与基础设施项目的经济产出额能保持长期的协整关系,且根据温州特有的地域优势,私营企业未来会对船舶投资有所侧重,铁路次之。总的来说,私营企业投资会促进基础设施项目的经济增长,从而促进国内经济发展。

By using the data of private enterprises＇ investments in aviation, shipping and railway industrial in Wenzhou during 2013 to 2015, this paper uses cointegration theory, Granger causality test and error correction model, to analyze the dynamic relationship between private enterprises＇ investments in the infrastructure industrial. First, the information entropy and equilibrium degree of the private enterprises＇ investments in the infrastructure industrial in recent 24 months is analyzed. Then, the dynamic relationship between private enterprises＇ investments and their profits is inspected and discussed. Finally, we get several results：（1） the private enterprises＇ investments in the infrastructure industrial will be increased, and their investments structure will tends to be changed;（2） private enterprises＇ investments in aviation,shipping and railway industrial will increase the profits, which is also a one- way influence;（3） in Wenzhou, the relationship between private enterprises＇ investments in infrastructure industrial and its profit is a long term cointegration, and the investments in shipping and railway industrial will play more important role in the future,especially in shipping industrial. In general, private enterprises＇ investments will promote the development of infrastructure industrial, as well as the domestic economy.