基于灰色层次分析法的城市防洪工程效益评价

Research and application of benefits assessment for urban flood control project based on gray AHP

层次分析法是定性与定量分析相结合的多准则决策方法,而灰色区间关联法能进行既有确知信息又含有未知信息的关联分析.根据城市防洪工程效益评价范围宽、层次多、评价指标多样化的特点,运用层次分析法建立效益评价模型,确定城市防洪工程效益的影响指标及其权重值,并结合灰色区间关联法进行关联运算,进而提供最优方案的选择方法.针对长江中下游的沿江城市武汉市的城市防洪工程,运用上述灰色层次分析法评价模型分析该城市"有"、"无"防洪工程相对于理想方案的关联度,进而对其防洪工程效益进行分析评价.模型计算结果表明,该城市的防洪工程发挥了较显著的综合效益.

Analytic hierarchy process （AHP） is a qualitative and quantitative approach in multiple criteria decision making; while grey interval correlation method can conduct correlation analysis with both ascertain and uncertain information. The benefit assessment of urban flood control project is characterized with wide range, multilevel and diversified index. For this characteristic, an AHP assessment model combined with grey interval correlation method is proposed to evaluate the optimal program of urban flood control. The impact indicators and its weights are determined by the AHP assessment model; the correlation degrees for different schemes are calculated using grey interval correlation method. Finally, the developed method is applied to assessing the benefits of the urban flood control project in Wuhan city along Yangtze River. The correlation degree for schemes of building or not building the flood control project related to the ideal one is calculated. The results demonstrate that the flood control project in this city has significant comprehensive benefits.