“四化”同步发展水平动态评价研究——基于时序全局主成分分析方法

Research on the Dynamic Evaluation of the “Four-modernizations” Synchronous Development Level——Based on All-around Principal Component Analysis

近年来,＂四化＂协调发展引起学界的关注并取得了部分研究成果。以＂四化＂同步发展水平评价指标新体系为基础,通过全局主成分分析法对大陆各省、市、自治区2009~2013年的＂四化＂同步水平进行动态评价,结果表明：考察期内我国＂四化＂同步发展水平没有明显改善,高水平同步型省份还很少,大多数省份某一化或两化的发展明显滞后;＂四化＂同步发展水平总体上呈西高东低,南北高、中部低的格局。

This paper developed the evaluation index system of the ＂Four-modernizations ＂synchronous development level and evaluated the dynamicity of the ＂Four-modernizations＂synchronization levels in 31 provinces and autonomous regions from 2009 to 2013 by adopting all-around principal component analysis method. The results show that there is no obvious improvement on the ＂Fourmodernization＂synchronous development level during the period concerned; there are few provinces which have high level synchronization; most of the provinces lag behind obviously in one or two modernizations;on the whole the ＂Four-modernization＂synchronous development level presents the pattern of high level in the west and low one in the east,and high in the north-south and low in the middle.