京津冀服务业能源消费碳排放影响因素分析

Influential Factors and Carbon Emissions of Service Industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

利用统计数据首先分析了1995—2013年京津冀地区能源消费结构并核算京津冀地区服务业碳排放量,其次通过灰色关联分析方法分析了京津冀地区服务业能源消费碳排放影响因素.研究发现,京津冀服务业能源消费以石油为主;能源结构多元化系数和产业规模是北京市服务业能源消费碳排放最主要影响因素,人口效应和能源强度是天津市服务业能源消费碳排放最主要影响因素,能源结构多元化系数、人口效应、产业规模、能源强度和河北省服务业碳排放呈中度关联关系.提出京津冀地区服务业能源消费有待向碳排放量低的天然气等能源转变,北京市和河北省服务业能源利用效率有待提高的建议.

We analyzed the energy consumption structure and accounted the carbon emissions of services industryuse of statistical data in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. Then we studied the influential factors of carbon emissionsof service industry based on the grey relational analysis in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. The results show that energyconsumption of services industry are mainly the oil. The energy structure diversification and industrial scale are themain factors of carbon emissions of energy consumption of services industry in Beijing. Population effects andenergy intensity are the main factors of carbon emissions of energy consumption of services industry in Tianjin.Energy structure diversification,population effects,industrial scale and energy intensity show moderate association tothe carbon emissions of services industry in Hebei Province. We give recommendations that the energy consumptionshould transform to low carbon emissions natural gas and other energy of services industry in Beijing-Tianjin-HebeiRegion,and the energy efficiency of services industry in Beijing City and Hebei Province should be improved.