基于VEC模型的商丘市四化协调发展路径研究

Study on Four Modemizations' Coordinated Development in Shangqiu City——Based on VEC Model

商丘市作为中原经济区承接产业转移示范市,梳理其四化耦合发展机理具有重要现实意义.利用1994年至2013年商丘四化发展的经济数据,构建VEC模型,结合脉冲响应分析方法分析四化耦合发展机制.研究得出以下主要结论:短期内,城镇化与信息化的正向引领作用明显,但信息化有滞后性;农业现代化对其他三化有负向效应;工业化促进自身与农业现代化,但是对城镇化与信息化有负向效应.长期来讲,四化之间存在均衡关系,城镇化弹性为0.67,信息化弹性为0.01,农业现代化弹性为-0.9.最后,基于实证分析,对商丘四化协调发展路径给出了三点建议.

Shangqiu city,as a model city of central plains economic zone,is undertaking industrial transfer.It＇s important to clarify the four modemizations＇ mechanism shangqiu city.This paper combines vector error correction model（VEC model）with impulse response to analyse the four modemizations＇ mechanism based on the economic data of shangqiu,from 2006 to 2013.The main results as follows：in short term,the positive role of urbanization and informatization is obvious,but,exists Hysteresis effect of informatization;agricultural modernization has a negative effect on the other;industrialization has a negative effect on urbanization and informatization,while a positive effect on itself and agricultural modernization.In the long term,here is a long equilibrium co-integration relationship among four modemizations：urbanization＇s marginal contribution to industrialization is 0.67,while informatization is 0.01 and agricultural modernization is-0.9.Based on the conclusions,this paper give three proposals to improve the four modemizations＇ coordinated development.