低油价使世界炼油工业保持良好发展态势——2015年世界炼油工业回顾与展望

Facilitating the development status and trend of world refining industry under low oil price——Review and outlook of world refining industry in 2015

2015年,世界各地炼油能力总体缓慢增长,总能力达到48.3亿吨/年,比上年增长约2600万吨/年,新增能力主要来自阿联酋和印度。原油加工量再创历史新高,尤其是欧美炼厂原油加工量大幅增长;炼厂开工率继续回升,西欧地区大幅提升;原油价格下跌使世界主要炼油中心炼油毛利总体水平得到不同程度的改善。北美地区炼油商继续扩大页岩油加工能力,欧洲炼油利润好转给持续调整多年的炼油业带来喘息之机,"一带一路"沿线国家炼油业稳步发展。预计2016年世界净增炼油能力约4100万吨/年,总能力达48.7亿吨/年。在低油价刺激下,世界炼厂加工量不断增加,石油市场上的原油过剩将转变成油品过剩,最终导致炼厂开工率下降。未来几年,世界汽柴油供需的结构性矛盾将更加突出,汽油毛利将远好于柴油。各国油品标准中的主要指标趋向一致,质量升级速度加快。

In 2015, world refining capacity increased slowly to reach 4,830 million tons per year, about 26 million tons higher than last year, and the main new adding capacity is from United Arab Emirates and India. World crude processing volume hits a history new record high, especially in Europe and US where the crude processing volume made substantial growth. The operating rate of refineries kept rising and West Europe rebounded significantly; refining margins in main refining centers improved by different degrees because of the low crude oil price. Refiners in North America have expanded their refining capacity of shale oil continually; the improving of profit provided a timely break for the refining industry that have readjusted for many years in Europe. The refining industries in the countries along the ＂One Belt and One Road＂ developed steadily. In 2016, the new net adding refining capacity will get to 4100 million tons per year with the total capacity of 4.87 billion tons per year. The processing volume of the world refineries will increase continually with low price stimulation and the crude oil surplus will transform into the refined oil surplus accordingly, finally resulted in decrease of operating rate The structure contradiction of supply and demand of global gasoline and diesel will become more prominent, gasoline margin will be much better than diesel＇s. The main index of oil product standards will tend to be consistent in different countries and the speed of oil quality upgrading will be accelerated for years to come.