“营改增”的政府间收入分配效应——基于税收收入弹性变动的测算与评估

The Effect of Replacing the Business Tax with a Value- Added Tax on the Intergovernmental Distribution of Revenue: Based on Tax Revenue Elasticity

文章采用税务部门细分类数据（2007～2013年）,运用税收收入弹性方法,追踪了“营改增”试点前后,分区域、分产业和分行业的税收收入弹性变动趋势。这些弹性变动情况表明,既有的国地税收入分配格局、区域间税收收入分布和产业税负状况,对“营改增”的实际效果产生了显著影响。研究认为,缩小工业增值税与商业增值税之间的税收收入弹性差异,并保持各类税收收入弹性的平稳,将有助于缓解政府间收入分配的失衡。

By analyzing the data from tax department （2007 N 2013 ）, this paper tracks the variation of tax reve- nue elasticity of regions, industries and sectors. Results indicate that the effect of replacing the business tax with a value - added tax on intergovernmental distribution of revenue has been affected by the existing pattern of tax administration, tax revenue distribution and tax incidence. The paper suggests that if the difference is re- duced between the elasticity of industrial VAT and the elasticity of business VAT, and tax revenue elasticity is kept stable, it would be conducive to balancing the intergovernmental distribution of revenue.