养老金制度改革对房价上涨的影响研究

The Impact of Pension System Reform on Housing Price

本文使用中国30个省份2001-2012年间样本建立动态面板数据模型,采用系统GMM估计方法考察了养老金制度改革对房价的影响,从一个崭新的角度解释21世纪以来中国房价上涨过快的原因。研究结果表明,养老金制度改革对房价上涨起到了显著的推动作用,养老金缴费率每下降1%,房价将会上涨0.07%;并且对于东、中、西部地区而言,养老金制度改革对房价的推动作用存在明显的区域差异。为了促进中国房地产市场的健康发展,做实养老金个人账户,提高养老保险统筹基金收益率,将是重要的政策手段。

Pension system reform is an important factor in pushing up housing price. Based on dynamic panel data model, this paper uses the data of 30 Chinese provinces over the period 2001-2012, and applies SYS-GMM method to analyze the impact of pension system reform on housing price in China. The empirical result shows that pension system reform will push up housing price, that is, a 1% decrease in the pension contribution rate leads to an almost 0.29% increase in the housing price. Besides, there are obvious differences among Chinese eastern region, central region, and western region about the impact of pension system reform on housing price.