人力资本和中国城市住房价格

Human Capital and Housing Prices in Chinese Cities

中国住房价格上涨具有"非平稳性"和"异质性"两个核心特征。基于微观家户数据,从人力资本增长视角分析中国城市住房价格的动态演变和区域差异发现,1999年高校"扩招"和高等教育资源地区分布不均导致的人力资本规模扩张和空间集聚,是造成房价上涨两个核心特征的重要原因。高等教育人口占比每增加1个百分点,城市住房价格将上涨4.6%—7.9%,这可解释2002—2009年间房价增幅的约12%—20%。其作用机制包括"直接效应"、"外溢效应"和"预期效应"。随着人力资本规模扩张速度趋于下降,中国房地产市场已经进入"新常态",以短期政策刺激房价无益于保持房地产市场的平稳健康发展。

The rise in housing prices in China has two central characteristics:it is nonstationary and heterogeneous.Using household micro-data,we analyzed the dynamic evolution and regional differences in housing prices in Chinese cities from the perspective of the growth of human capital.Our analysis shows that the expanded enrolment in higher education since 1999 and the increased scale and spatial concentration of human capital arising from the unequal distribution of higher education resources between regions are important factors in these two characteristics.For each one percent increase in the proportion of the population with higher education,urban housing prices will rise between 4.6% and 7.9%.This can explain some 12% to 20% or so of the increase in housing prices from 2002 to 2009.This comes about via the 'direct effect,'the'spillover effect'and the'anticipation effect.'As the pace of the increase in human capital tends to slow down,the Chinese housing market has entered a'new normal'state.The policy of short-term stimulus to housing prices does nothing for the steady and sound development of the housing market.