煤炭行业供给侧改革的背景及影响研究

Study on background and influence of supply front reform in coal industry

当前煤炭需求下滑,产能仍处于净投放周期,煤炭行业要实现供需均衡,只能借力供给侧改革。分析了当前煤炭市场形势,从中长期看经济增速仍将继续放缓,大宗能源价格将长期承压。认为,供给端调整将影响未来市场走势,去产能将是必由之路。同时,对未来煤炭市场进行展望,短期内煤炭行业离周期性复苏还较为漫长。

At present,the coal demands are sliding downward,the coal production capacity is still in a net supply period and the coal industry to realize a supply and demand balance should put more effort to the supply front reform.The paper analyzed the present coal market situation.From a view of a mid-long term,the economic growth speed would slow down continuously and the bulk energy price would be pressed in a long term.The paper held that the adjustment of the supply terminal would be affected to the future market tendency and a de-capacity would be the only way.Meanwhile,an outlook was conducted on the future coal market and within a short term,a way to recover the coal industry would be a long way.