摘要
根据珠三角、长三角、北京、天津等27城市人口规模与经济规模的数据,对经济增长与人口增长之间的关系规律进行统计分析。结果表明,人口规模与经济规模存在非常强的因果关系,城市人口聚集对GDP增长具有"正规模效应",特大城市产业转型升级增强"人口聚集效应",城市人口规模的拐点取决于其他城市的均衡发展程度。城市人口与经济关系的发展可以分为特点不同的四个阶段。城市人口规划应以人口增长与经济增长关系规律为基础,着眼于人口增长与经济增长的和谐关系。
The population growth has a close relation with the economic development. In the consume society,the population scale must increase with the GDP growth because of the free mobility of the resources. This paper puts up the＂population scale thesis＂and verified the thesis by the data of 27 cities in China. The outcome shows that the growth of population and the growth of GDP are positively related. It explained about 95% of the error to predict the GDP by Population. The population growth make GDP growing faster in present. There are four stages in the process of city growth. At last, it is recommended that the end of the urban population controlling must be based on the harmonious relationship between the economic growth and the population growth.
出处
《中共中央党校学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第3期80-85,共6页
Journal of The Party School of The Central Committee of The C.T.C
关键词
人口规模假说
人口增长规律
城市发展“四阶段论”
人口调控
population scale hypothesis
the law of urban population growth
the four stages of city development
population control
