水库移民满意度影响因素实证分析

An empirical analysis on influencing factors of the reservoir resettlement satisfaction

以湖北丹江口水库(以供水为主,南水北调源头水库)、湖南涔天河水库(以灌溉为主)、四川亭子口水库(以防洪为主)这3个不同类型的水库移民样本户为案例,通过农户访谈和问卷调查,分别抽样1 031户、697户和683户。以移民满意度为因变量,以移民户特征、移民家庭收入支出情况、移民生产条件、移民生活条件、社会条件、资源条件和环境条件等7大类32个指标为自变量,运用Logistic回归模型,对不同库区水库移民满意度及其影响因素进行了实证分析,提出以少儿抚养比、老年抚养比、家庭经营性纯收入、工资性收入、转移性纯收入、财产性收入、可灌溉比例、耕地半径、人均住房面积、人均水资源量、绿地覆盖率和水土流失率等指标内容,更加全面地体现影响移民满意度的关键因素,结果可以反映出移民满意度在不同类型水库移民中的差异。

This paper explains in detail data and sample composition by interview survey and questionnaireinvestigation of 1031 immigrant households in Danjiangkou reservoir（which supplies water primarily）, 697 immigrant households in Centianhe reservoir（which irrigates primarily）,683 immigrant households in Ting-zikou reservoir（which prevents flood primarily）. This paper formulates the Logistic model with reservoir re-settlement satisfaction as dependent variable, and with immigrants＇ characteristics, family income and dis-bursement, production conditions, living conditions, social conditions, resources conditions, environmentalconditions as independent variables. This paper uses the Logistic model to analyze the factors which may af-fect reservoir resettlement satisfaction, and innovatively presents some evaluation index such as children＇sdependency ratio, old-age dependency ratio, household business income, salary income, transfer incomeetc. This paper more fully reveals the key influence factors and the differences on reservoir resettlement sat-isfaction in different types of reservoir resettlement. The study confirmed that variables of immigrants＇ fami-ly income such as＂per capita net income＂,immigrants＇ production conditions such as＂quality of cultivat-ed land＂, immigrants＇ living conditions such as＂infrastructure＂ and immigrants＇ social conditions such as＂the implementation of immigration policy＂in the three reservoir models are the most important factors thataffect the immigrant satisfaction. Considering the practical implications of this research, identifying factorsdetermining immigrant satisfaction with reservoir resettlement relocation experience could be useful for policy-makers designing immigration programmes.