1起登革热疫情事件应急现场处置专题风险评估

Rapid risk assessment on field emergency response to a dengue outbreak

目的评估建瓯市2014年登革热暴发事件防控工作的阶段性效果,研判疫情趋势。方法在现场流行病学调查、相关政策、文献扫描的基础上,采用专家会商法进行风险评估。结果 2014年9月18日,建瓯发现登革热疫情事件,疫情分布于东峰和吉阳镇。背景识别资料为截至10月8日24:00,东峰镇登革热罹患率为97.46‰,吉阳镇罹患率为0.22‰;两地疫情无流行病学关联。两地蚊媒密度本底布雷图指数分别为53.64和46.00,均为新发疫区,人群普遍易感。于9月19日起采取卫生应急措施,疫情于9月27日、10月2日两个时间点迅速下降,无重症死亡报告,无新疫点,截至10月6日两地布雷图指数分别为0.96和7.40。结论基于上述背景评估认为,前期防控见效,但存在防蚊灭蚊死角、专业队伍配备不合理、部分留观病例管理不到位、实验室检测能力建设缺位等风险点,疫情仍可能散在拖尾或反弹;远期不排除有更多点暴发的可能。

Objective To assess the effect of prevention and control of dengue outbreaks in Jian＇ou city,2014,and analyze the epidemic trends. Methods Risk assessment was made after discussions among experts based on field epidemiology investigation,relevant policies,and documents scanning. Results On September 18,2014,a dengue outbreak occurred in Jian＇ou city,the epidemic was distributed in Dongfeng and Jiyang towns.As of October 8,2014,the attack rate was97.46‰ in Donfeng town,and 0.22‰ in Jiyang town;there was no epidemiological association between the two towns.The Breteau index was 53.64 and 46.00 respectively.Dengue was a new infectious disease in Jian＇ou city,and the population was susceptible.Emergency health measures were taken from September 19 th.The number of new cases declined rapidly on September 27 th and October 2nd,no severe cases and deaths were reported,no new outbreak was found.As of October 6th,two Breteau index was 0.96 and 7.40 respectively. Conclusion The early prevention and control measures were effective,there were risk points,such as mosquito prevention and killing,irrational structure of professional teams,management of some observation cases not in place,the absence of laboratory capacity building,and the epidemic may still be scattered in the tailing or rebound,with possibility of outbreaks on more points in the future.