安徽省产业结构升级与经济增长关系的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between the Industrial Structure and Economic Growth in An Hui Province

利用安徽省1995—2014年时间序列数据,运用计量经济学ADF检验、协整分析、格兰杰因果检验,建立回归方程及误差修正模型,结果表明:安徽省经济发展速度与产业结构之间存在长期稳定均衡关系,产业结构是经济增速发展的单向格兰杰原因,经济增速与产业结构之间的短期弹性1.2590,小于长期弹性2.7175,说明产业结构对经济增长的长期影响要大于短期影响。提出应在坚决稳定一产、强化发展二产、加速提升三产的同时优化产业结构以促进经济可持续发展。

Based on time series data in 1995- 2014,and with the econometric ADF test and cointegration analysis and Granger causality test,we set up a regression equation and error correction model. The results show that the speed of economic development in Anhui province and the industrial structure is the one- way Granger,and the short- term elasticity between the economic growth and industrial structure is 1. 2590,less than2. 7175. The impact of industrial structure is much bigger than the long- term impact of short- term effect on economic growth. We should strengthen the development and production,accelerate the tertiary industry and optimize the industrial structure to achieve a sustainable development.