厦门港港口集装箱集疏运系统发展分析

Analysis on the Development of Port Container Collection and Distribution System in Xiamen

港口集装箱集疏运系统是港口集装箱发展中一个很重要的环节,集疏运的能力与吞吐量息息相关。近年来厦门港集装箱吞吐量发展迅速,然而过渡依赖公路运输的集疏运系统却面临着拥堵不畅的问题。文章根据厦门港的集装箱吞吐量变化情况,采用时间序列分析方法对集装箱集疏运的长期趋势、季节变动和循环变动情况进行分析,并采用灰色预测模型对厦门港的未来集装箱集疏运量进行预测,以此为依据进而提出建议措施。

Port container collection and distribution system is a very important link in the development of port container and the capacity of collection and distribution system is closely related to the cargo throughput of ports. In recent years, the cargo throughput of ports in Xiamen has witnessed a rapid development; however the system, excessively dependent on the transport by road, is faced with poor congestion problems. According to the port container throughput in Xiamen, this paper analyzed the longterm trend, seasonal changes and the cycle changes of port container collection and distribution in Xiamen by method of time series analysis. It forecasted the capacity of collection and distribution system by Grey forecasting model. Finally, it put forward the suggestions.