高技术产业空间差距及分布时空演进

Spatial Disparity and Temporal-spatial Evolution of High- tech Industry in China

高新技术产业自20世纪50年代兴起以来,发展规模不断扩大,产业高端化发展趋势凸显,同时也存在严重的空间发展不平衡与多极化现象,这不利于我国产业结构升级。本文以主营业务收入作为衡量高技术产业发展水平的指标,利用Dagum基尼系数测度高技术产业整体及区域的空间差距,采用kernel密度估计探究高技术产业分布的动态演进,引用空间马尔科夫链讨论高技术产业分布的空间演进。研究发现:中国高技术产业发展水平逐年提高,但呈现东、中、西递减趋势,东部地区具有产业集聚现象;中国高技术产业空间差距、地区内差距和地区间差距均有下降趋势,导致空间差距的主导因素在不断变化,东、中、西部地区高技术产业在部分年份具有极化现象,邻域高技术产业的发展水平对本地区产业发展水平存在影响。

The phenomenon of spatial disparity exists in the development of China＇s high - tech industry. This paper measures the developing level of high - tech industry with the main business income as indicators, measures the spatial disparity of the high - tech industry as a whole and sub regions with dagum Gini coefficient, explores the dynamic evolution of the distribution of high - tech industry with kernel density estimates, and discusses the spatial evolution of the distribution of high - tech indus- try with spatial Markov chain. The results of the study are as follows. The developing level of in China has increased year by year, but shows the decreasing trend in the East, Middle and West, and high- tech industry has shaped industrial agglomera- tion in the east of China. The spatial disparity in China＇s high - tech industry and within areas and between areas have de- creased gradually, and the leading factors of spatial disparity are changing. The high - tech industry in China and the East, Middle and West show the phenomenon of polarization in some years. The developing level of of high technology industry in neighborhood will affect the developing level of local industrial zone. If the developing level of neighborhood is higher than local developing level, the promotion between the two regions will be very obvious. Conversely, the promotion will be inconspicuous.