粮食安全背景下农业保险对农户生产行为的影响效应——基于粮食主产区微观数据的实证研究

Effects of Agricultural Insurance on Farmers'. TIF, + Production Behavior under the Background of Grain Security:Evidence from Grain Production Areas

以维护国家粮食安全为背景,通过文献梳理出我国未来仍需维持较高的粮食生产能力以保证"口粮安全"。农业保险作为应对自然灾害、维持收入稳定的重要风险管理工具,理论上有助于提高农户种粮的积极性、促进粮食生产。本文通过建构两组模型、四个方程,比较分析农业保险引致的耕地面积和农资投入各自变化对农业收入及其占比的影响效应;基于全国八大粮食主产区的微观调查数据,验证农业保险对农户生产行为的实际作用效果;并通过模糊聚类分析法对区域差异进行甄别。研究显示,现阶段农业保险促进了农户农业收入的增加,但对其种粮积极性的提升并不理想,收入结构不同的地区农业保险的效果亦存在差异。结合分析我国粮食安全形势和农业现代化趋势,尝试提出保障粮食安全、提升农业保险政策效果的对策建议。

Through extensive literature review, the article find that China still need to maintain high grain production to ensure food security. Agriculture insurance, as an important risk management tool to mitigate natural disaster and stabilize farmer＇s in- come, is instrumental to achieve this goal. It has also been proven to have the effect of improving the farmers＇ motivation so as to promote the food production theoretically. This article builds two models made up of four equations to analyze the behavioral response of farmers with agriculture insurance, especially on its income effect on cultivated land area and agricultural invest- ment. Then, these effects are tested by empirical data, collected through questionnaire on major grain producing areas in Clai- m. Fuzzy classification is further applied to identify the regional differences. The results indicate, the agriculture insurance promote the farmers＇ income. However, the ＇improving effect＇ of agriculture insurance is not as effective as it is supposed to be in theory; and that the its performance are greatly affected by farmers＇ income level. Finally, considering the food security situ- ation and trend of agricultural modernization in China, countermeasures and suggestions are proposed to enhance the effect of a- gricultural insurance policy.