孔子学院发展推动因素的实证研究

Empirical Research on Driving Factors of Development of Confucius Institute

在经历了过去十年的高速扩张之后,目前孔子学院的发展需要向更自觉、更重质量的方向进行调整。对过去九年与孔子学院发展相关的各种数据的实证分析表明,孔子学院过去十年的发展,更多的是受到来自中国以外的各种因素的推动,其中经济扩张因素发挥了绝对主导作用,最终在不同国家间造成了严重不平衡现象。实证分析也表明,驻在国的政治和意识形态背景在孔子学院过去的发展中发挥的实际作用非常有限,所在国的经济、社会发展程度对孔子学院的发展的影响同样非常有限。在党和政府越来越重视中国文化软实力的今天,孔子学院未来的发展,应当更多地向与中国经贸关系尚不密切的地区倾斜,充分发挥出孔子学院通过汉语教学和对外传播中国文化时扩大中国软实力的独特作用,并降低政治因素在孔子学院发展中的敏感程度。

After ten years of high speed development, the further advancement of Confucius Institute might need adjustment towards a direction with more self-consciousness and quality. Empirical research on the data of the last nine years proves that the development of the Confucius Institute is more a consequence of the propelling factors outside China. Among them the economic expansion of China plays a dominant role, which eventually leads to an imbalanced establishment of Confucius Institutes in different countries. The empirical research also testifies that the actual impact of the politiCal and ideological factors on the development of Confucius Institute is quite limited. When the Chinese government is paying more and more emphasis on the soft power of China, the further development of Confucius Institute should favor those regions that are still without close commercial relationship with China with the purpose of fully taking advantage of the unique role of the Confucius Institute in the promotion of the soft power of China by means of education of the Chinese language and introduction of the Chinese Culture. The influence of political and ideological factor should be limited in the decision making process on development of Confucius Institute.