一种新型智能配电网风险评估模型

Risk assessment model of smart distribution grid

为实现智能配电网风险评估,提出一种新型智能配电网风险评估模型。根据当前智能配电网发展情况,构建融合宏观风险和微观指标的智能配电网多级风险评估体系,使其尽可能全面地覆盖网络风险管理过程中的关键性风险因素;考虑专家权威性对权重分配的影响,在模糊层次分析法的基础上应用相似度聚类分析赋予评估体系合理的静态主观权重;为充分计及微观指标风险值的时序特征,基于改进CRITIC赋权法赋予微观指标相应的动态客观权重,并将其与静态主观权重结合为最优变权。实例验证了所提模型有较强的实用性。

A risk assessment model is proposed for the smart distribution grid. A mululevet r^sK a^c,~,,system combining the macroscopic risk and the microcosmic index is built based on the developmentconditions of smart distribution grid to reflect its critical risk factors during the risk management ascomprehensive as possible. Based on the fuzzy hierarchy analytic process,the similarity clustering analysis isapplied to consider the influence of expert authorities on the weight distribution for assigning a rationalstatic subjective weight to the assessment system. The improved CRITIC method is applied to fully considerthe sequential features of the microcosmic index risk for assigning a corresponding dynamic objective weightto the microcosmic index,which is then combined with the static subjective weight to obtain the dynamicoptimal weight. A practical example verifies the better practicability of the proposed model.