朝鲜第四次核试与东北亚新变局

North Korea's Fourth Nuclear Test and New Changes in Northeast Asia

朝鲜第四次核试验使朝核武实力、核意图、相关各方对朝核和朝鲜及朝鲜半岛等战略性议题的政策进一步明朗化。朝方既然排除万难,把核武开发推进至"热核武器"阶段,就更不会轻言弃核。美国更不可能以武迫朝弃核。在此情形下,美韩日等相关各方对朝核的政策将转向"现实主义",即不公开承认、却不得不被迫在政策实践中按照朝已实际拥核的新现实调整其相关政策,其对朝政策重点将从诱迫朝弃核转向加紧对朝搞"政权更迭"。由此,东北亚格局将发生一系列新变化。美韩日加强同盟关系、共同加大对朝"政权更迭"的力度,虽不至于导致东北亚恢复原有的冷战格局,但朝鲜半岛及东北亚局势势必更复杂、更混乱、更紧张。

North Korea's fourth nuclear test exposed its nuclear power and nuclear intentions. The policies of various relevant parties towards North Korea's nuclear power,North Korea and the Korean Peninsula become more obvious. North Korea will not easily abandon its nuclear power since it has promoted nuclear development to the level of 'thermal nuclear weapons'. The policies of the US,South Korea and Japan will be transferred to realism,namely,their priorities will transform from 'seducing North Korea to abandon nuclear weapons'to 'speeding up regime change'. Consequently,new changes will take place in Northeast Asia. The US,South Korea and Japan will strengthen their alliance and the situations in the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia will be more complicated,more chaotic and tenser,though the erstwhile Cold War structure will not be restored in Northeast Asia.