评估安理会制裁对朝鲜经济的影响

The Trend and Impact of UN Sanctions on North Korean Economy

金正恩执政后,朝鲜经济呈现好转的迹象。2016年初朝鲜进行第四次核试验,安理会通过2270号制裁决议。该决议的实施会影响朝鲜对外贸易、外资引进、经济特区和经济开发区的开发进展、企业的开工率和居民生活。朝鲜能否挺过安理会制裁?笔者认为,由于经历90年代经济困难,朝鲜的自生力较强,通过"我们式的管理体制改善"措施积聚内部力量,大幅扩散的市场经济将起到一定的支撑作用,制裁对中朝贸易的负面影响比预期要小。但从长期看,朝鲜不弃核,很难实现经济的根本性好转。

Since Kim Jeong- eun took power,North Korea's economy has shown signs of improvement. The UN Security Council adopted resolution 2270 to impose sanctions against North Korea in the wake of its fourth nuclear test. The implementation of the resolution will not only affect the foreign trade and investment of North Korea,but also influence the special economic development zones in North Korea. Meanwhile,it might affect on the enterprises' operating rate and livelihood of the people. However,it is difficult for the UN to achieve its goal in a short period of time. Because most of the North Koreans had experienced nutritional deprivation long before the mid-1990 s,they conducted the implementation of ‘our new economic management system'. Moreover,substantial diffusion of market economy is expected to play an important supporting role. Therefore,the impact of sanctions on the trade between China and North Korean is less than expected. However,in the long term,it is difficult for North Korea to achieve fundamental economic changes,if it does not abandon its nuclear power.