基于生源景气监测的民办高校扩张风险与对策分析

Research on Private University Expansion Risk Prevention Measures Based on Student Source Prosperity Monitoring

所谓生源景气监测,是以统计学为基础对反映生源现状的各种变量进行综合呈现的方法。同时,它也是民办高校全面风险管理体系的重要组成部分。建立生源景气指数体系,其本质就是探讨生源危机对民办高校产生的影响。生源景气指标由三部分组成：先行指标、一致性指标、滞后指标。这三类指标基本上涵盖了影响生源景气的各种变量。天津市民办高校生源景气指数（2008~2015）分析显示,生源景气值逐年上升趋势明显,后期继续快速上升的压力较大。生源景气监测与民办高校扩张风险防范之间有着紧密的逻辑关系和明确的联动机制,主要体现在扩张决策、扩张融资、扩张预期收入等方面。本文结合研究成果提出三项有效风险防范对策,即将生源发展列入顶层设计,以生源监测约束扩张规模和主动争取生源份额。

The so-called student source Prosperity Monitoring is based on statistical basis,to reflect student source the method of the various variables a comprehensive status. It is also an important part of Private Universities comprehensive risk management system. The build of student source prosperity index system,its essence is to explore the impact of the crisis of private universities student source. Student source prosperity indicator consists of three parts： leading indicators,consistency index,lagging indicators. This basically covers three types of indicators of climate variables affect student source. Private College source of students in Tianjin prosperity index（ 2008 to 2015） analysis shows that source of students value the boom and an increasing trend is clearly continuing rapid increase in the latter part of the larger pressure. Monitoring and university source of students between the the boom expansion of private risk prevention has a close relationship logic and clear linkage mechanism,mainly in the expansion decision,expansion financing,expansion expected revenues and so on. Based on the achievements made three effective risk prevention measures： source of students will be included in the development of top-level design,the expansion of the scale of monitoring source of students bound source of students take the initiative to share.