道路环境对绕城高速公路交通事故严重程度影响分析

Analysis on Traffic Accident Severity Influenced by Road Environment on Circular Highway

为探析及定量化绕城高速交通事故影响因素,分析了合肥绕城高速公路事故特征,并重点对2处多发事故的交汇枢纽段事故进行描述,从环境角度归纳出白天、黑夜、天气、照度、能见度等10个因素对其安全性的影响,应用分类变量处理方法将其定义为10种指标,并进行赋值。结合Logistic模型理论,以合肥绕城高速2011年9月1日-2014年8月31日共计103起交通事故为建模数据,构建道路环境对绕城高速公路交通事故严重程度影响度量模型。结果表明：模型拟合度较好;事故时间段和事故天气是影响绕城高速事故严重性的重要因素,其中,白天死亡事故概率较低,其发生比是夜间的13%;晴天时,绕城高速死亡事故概率却较高,其发生比为不利天气的3.26倍。

To analyze and quantify influence factors of traffic accidents on circular highway,characteristics of traffic accident on Hefei circular highway were analyzed,and accidents of two black spots in interchange hub section were described emphatically.The influences of 10 factors including time of day or night,weather,illumination,visibility on the safety were induced from the angle of environment.To classify and assign the 10 indices by categorical variables processing method,103 traffic accidents data between September 1,2011 and August 31,2014 on Hefei circular highway were used for building measurement model of traffic accident severity influenced by road environment on circular highway based on logistic model theory.The results show that the model provides a good fit for data.The accident time and weather are the important factors to affect the accident severity on circular highway.In the day,there is a low probability of death accident,accounting for 13% of that in the night.In clear day,the death accident probability on circular highway is higher,accounting for 3.26 times of that in bad weather.