北京市西瓜种植收益的回归分析——以844户农户调查为例

Regression Analysis on the Profit of Watermelon Planting in Beijing——Taking the Investigation of 844 Households as an Example

依据2015年北京市西瓜种植的调研数据,通过建立多元线性回归模型,进行了成本效益的实证分析。研究发现,产量、价格、文化程度、种植面积、种植模式、灌溉方式、销售方式、种植费用是影响西瓜种植收益的主要影响因素,结合分析结果和本次调研情况,指出应当从改善经营管理方式、加强政府引导、提高组织化程度三个方面着手,提高西瓜种植的收益。

Based on the survey data of watermelon planting in Beijing city in 2015, through the establishment of multiple linear regression model, the empirical analysis of the cost effectiveness was carried out. It was found that the main factors affecting the watermelon profit were the yield, the price, education level, the planting area, the planting pattern, the irrigation method, the selling mode and the planting cost, combined with the analysis of the results and the situation of this investigation, it is pointed out that the profits of watermelon cultivation should be improved from three aspects： improving the management mode, strengthening the guidance of the government and improving the degree of organization.