互联网发展、交通运输及进口贸易关系研究——基于中国省际面板数据空间计量分析

Internet Development,Transportation and Import:Spatial Econometric Analysis Based on Panel Data of China's 30 Provinces

基于中国30省份2002-2014年的面板数据,以新国际贸易理论为基础,将"冰山型成本"纳入到理论框架中,对互联网发展及交通运输对进口贸易的影响进行了机制分析,并采用空间计量研究方法对影响的直接效应和间接效应进行估计。估计结果显示,互联网发展对当地进口贸易有显著抑制作用,但对周边区域的进口贸易有促进作用;交通运输对当地及周边区域的进口贸易都有促进作用。

On the basis of new international trade theory of Dunning,this research brings the ＂Iceberg Model Cost＂into the theoretical framework to analysis the mechanism of the influence of the Internet development and the transportation on import trade,based on 2002- 2014 panel data of China＇s 30 provinces（ except Tibet,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan Region）. In this paper,the space qualitative research method is adopted to estimate the direct effect and indirect effect. The estimate results show that the Internet development has a significant inhibitory effect to the local import trade,but it has a promoting effect on the import trade of surrounding regions; Transportation has a promoting effect on the import trade of local and surrounding areas.