气候变化背景下影响广西的主要气象灾害及变化特征

Main meteorological disasters and variation characteristics in Guangxi under the background of climate changes

利用广西常规气象资料和主要气象灾害数据,采用数理统计方法分析近50a来气候变化背景下影响广西的主要气象灾害及其变化特征。结果表明,影响广西的主要气象灾害有暴雨洪涝、干旱、台风、寒冻害和强对流天气(冰雹、大风、雷暴、龙卷风、飑线等),广西气象灾害具有灾种多,灾害频繁、灾情严重的特点;近50a来广西气候存在明显变暖趋势,升温速率为0.145℃/10a,在这种气候变化背景下,广西气象灾害的变化表现为降水呈现两极化发展态势,干旱和洪涝频率同时增加,高温事件增加,低温事件减少,极端天气气候事件频率增加,气象灾害严重程度增加。

Based on the conventional meteorological data and meteorological disaster data in Guangxi, the main meteorological disasters and the variation characteristics in recent 50 years were analyzed by statistical method. The results showed that the main meteorological disasters influencing Guangxi were rainstorm, flood, drought, typhoon, freezing and cold injury and severe convective weather （like： hail, strong winds, thunderstorms, tornadoes, squall line, etc.） , which indicates that the meteorological disasters of Guangxi have the specialty of various types, high occurring frequency and the severe disaster. The temperature of last 50 years in this region increased remarkably at a climate tendency of 0.145~C/ 10a.On the background of climate change, the variation of meteorological disaster in Guangxi display the characteristics that precipitation showed polarized development trend, drought and flood frequency increased in the meantime, the number of high temperature events grew, while the low temperature events reduced. In brief, the frequency of extreme meteorological disasters became more serious. weather and climate events tend to higher and the meteorological disasters became more serious