桂林11月深秋极端天气分析与专业气象服务对策

Extreme weather analysis and meteorological service countermeasure for Guilin in November

通过对2015年11月桂林极端天气分析发现,受厄尔尼诺和印度洋海温偏暖的共同影响,致使副热带高压持续偏强,在华南经常出现且维持西南低空急流,将低纬地区的暖湿水汽向我国长江流域及其以南地区不断输送,当深秋的冷空气向南移动时,由于副热带高压阻挡作用而折向偏东路南下,使冷暖气流常在长江流域以南地区交汇并维持,使得桂林降水偏多,造成了历史罕见极端气候事件。在异常天气下的专业气象服务显得尤为重要,通过调整了以往冬季的服务方式,更好地提高了专业气象服务效果,使气象灾害损失降到最低。

Based on analysis of the extreme weather in Nov. 2015 of Guilin, it is found that： the southwest low-level jet often occurring in south China kept the wet vapor from low latitude region to the south area and moved southward by east in late autumn due to the resistance of subtropical high which was maintained by the impact of el nino and Indian Ocean SST warm. All these made the airf/ow converge and sustain in the south China which led to the above normal precipitation in Guilin. Under the abnormal weather, the professional weather service is particularly important, by the professional weather service was improved by adjusting the previous service mode for winter to make the meteorological disaster losses to a minimum.