“一带一路”交通基础设施建设的国际经贸效应

The Impact of Economic Corridor Transportation Infrastructure under“The Belt and Road Initiative”Based on GTAP Model

"一带一路"战略下六大经济走廊交通基础设施互联互通,将有效解决贸易便利化问题,大大节省"一带一路"沿线国家贸易运输成本。运用GTAP模型模拟分析"一带一路"六大经济走廊交通基础设施建设的经贸效应。模拟结果显示,"一带一路"经济走廊交通基础设施建设对中国和各大经济走廊的进出口贸易、GDP增长以及中国贸易地区结构改善都将产生积极影响。对于同处亚太经济圈的中国台湾地区、日本以及韩国,选择融入"一带一路"可以防止可能受到的负面冲击,共享"一带一路"经贸合作效益。

The economic corridor transportation infrastructure improvement will bring forth considerable benefits to all BRI area in general. The growth rate of GDP and the total export- import volume will be enhanced to various extent. And the regional structure of foreign trade of China will be also changed. However, the BRI could also cause negative impact to some extent on other Asia Pacific economies in general, Taiwan in particular.