两型社会建设前后武汉城市圈人口压力变化研究

Study on the pressure change of Wuhan circle population before and after the construction of “Two-oriented Society”

人口综合压力指数可以定量地表示区域人口压力的综合等级,却不能显示区域人口压力组合差异,三角形法可以形象地表达人口压力组合差异.对武汉城市圈各城市的四期人口综合压力指数及自然资源、经济因素和社会因素的贡献进行了测算,结合三角形法表达进行了分析研究.研究显示:(1)城市圈各城市人口综合压力在整体上升中呈现不同变化特点,潜江市增加最为显著,咸宁市减小最为显著,其他城市呈现不同程度的波动特征;(2)城市圈各城市受经济因素的影响有所减弱,社会因素却呈增大趋势;(3)从人口压力组合类型变化来看,武汉一直属于后三角型,主要受自然资源限制;天门一直属于中三角B型,经济因素贡献值最大;黄冈、咸宁、仙桃和潜江均从中三角型向前三角B型转变,社会因素超过经济因素成为主要限制因素;黄石、鄂州和孝感由中三角A型转变为后三角型,自然资源限制越来越大.研究揭示了城市圈各城市人口压力的主要矛盾,为有针对性地提出城市管理策略提供决策支持.

Integrated population pressure index quantitatively expresses comprehensive level of regional population pressures instead of the constitutional difference which is able to be presented vividly by the triangle method.In the present work,the four years of integrated population pressure index value and the contribution of natural resources,economic and social factors were calculated and analyzed by the triangle method.Results show that：（1）Integrated population pressure is rising on the whole with the construction of the Two-Oriented Society in Wuhan city circle;The most significant increase is found in Qianjiang and the most significant reduction is revealed in Xiannin,while other cities displayed various degrees of fluctuation;（2）The impact of economic factors on Wuhan city cycle weakened,but social factors tended to increase;（3）Form the view of population pressure combination changes,Wuhan has always been after triangle and restricted by natural resources;Tianmen belongs to the triangle B-type,the maximum contribution to economic factors;Huanggang,Xianning,Xiantao,Qianjiang are all transforming from center triangle to anterior triangle B-type and social factors rather than economic factors become the main limiting factors;Huangshi,Ezhou and Xiaogan are transitioning from center triangle A-type to after triangle and the contribution of natural resources becomes bigger.This study reveals the main contradiction of population pressure within the Wuhan city cycle,providing decision support for putting forward the urban development and management strategy.