全球高分辨率气候系统模式研究进展

Review of Development and Application of High Resolution Global Climate System Model

气候模式是定量研究气候演变规律、预测或预估未来气候变化的重要工具。提高气候模式空间分辨率并改进相应的物理参数化过程,是改善模式性能的重要途径之一,对于认识气候变化规律、提高气候预测能力具有重要作用。在阐述发展全球高分辨率气候系统模式重要性的基础上,对当今国内外高分辨率气候系统模式的研究进展进行总结,介绍全球高分辨率气候系统模式研发和评估的现状及其存在的问题,并着重讨论了制约当前高分辨率气候系统模式发展的关键科学问题和技术瓶颈,其中包括高分辨率海洋和大气模式动力框架的研制和大规模高性能并行计算、次网格物理参数化过程的改进,以及中尺度海气相互作用等。同时,还介绍了国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段中的高分辨率模式比较子计划的科学目标及其试验设计方案。最后对未来我国全球高分辨率气候系统模式的发展和评估进行了展望。

Climate models have been used as an important tool to quantitatively study climate variability and to predict or project climate change in the future. One of the most important pathways for development and improvement of climate system model is to increase the spatial resolution and improve the corresponding physical parameterization schemes,which is very important for understanding climate change and improving climate prediction skill.Based on a brief introduction of the importance of developing high-resolution global climate system model,a review of recent progresses in the development and application of high-resolution models was summarized. The paper also introduced the current situation and problems for the development and evaluation of high-resolution models and focused on the key scientific and technical bottlenecks which restrict the development of high-resolution models,including the development of dynamic framework of the high-resolution ocean and atmospheric models and massive high performance parallel computing,the improvement of the sub-grid physical parameterization scheme,and mesoscale air-sea interaction. Meanwhile,the scientific objects and experiments design of the international high resolution climate model intercomparison project（ HiRes MIP） of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6（ CMIP6） was introduced. Finally,we prospect the future developments and evaluations of high-resolution climate models in China was proposed.