淄博市博山区近50年气候变化特征分析

Analysis on Climate Change Characteristics of Boshan District of Zibo City in Recent 50 Years

根据博山国家气象站1966年1月至2015年12月的气温、降水、日照资料,采用最小二乘法、滑动平均等方法,分析博山区近50年日照时数、年平均气温、年降水量的变化特征。结果表明:1近50年博山区年平均气温升高趋势明显,以0.2℃/10年的倾向率上升,极端最高温度、极端最低温度也呈上升趋势,热量资源更加丰富。2年降水量整体呈略微增加趋势,增长量仅为8.2 mm/10年。1981—1989年为持续欠水年,1993—1998年和2003—2005年是持续丰水年。1990年开始降水年际变化波动明显增大,年暴雨日数也有增多趋势。3年日照时数出现显著的减少趋势,平均递减高达87.6 h/10年。1988—1994年和2002—2015年的年日照时数均低于50年平均值,1979年和2006年日照时数分别为近50年的最高值和最低值。

According to the air temperature, precipitation and sunshine data from January 1966 to December 2015 in Boshan National Meteorological Station, the ]east square method and moving average method were used. The variation characteristics of sunshine hours, annual mean air temperature and annual precipitation in Boshan during recent 50 years were analyzed. The results were as follows： （1）In recent 50 years, the average annual air temperature in Boshan District was significantly higher, with the trend of 0.2 ℃/10a, the extreme maximum temperature, extreme minimum temperature showed an upward trend, and the heat resources were more abundant. （2）The annual precipitation showed a slight increasing trend, and the growth was only 8.2 mm/10 a. 1981-1989 was the continuous dry years, 1993-1998 and 2003-2005 were the continuous rainy year. Beginning in 1990 the interannual variation of rainfall fluctuations increased significantly, annual rainstorm days had increased trend. （3）Annual sunshine hours showed a significant reduction trend, with an average decrease of up to 87.6h/10a. 1988-1994 and 2002-2015 of annual sunshine hours were lower than the average of 50 years, 1979 and 2006 sunshine hours respectively for the past 50 years the highest and lowest.