历史制度主义中历史关节点研究的问题与进展

Problems and Progress in Research on Historical Critical Juncture

历史制度主义作为比较政治学研究方法中重要方法之一,尤其重视用时间维度对制度进行分析。基于制度稳定期和制度变迁期的阶段论假设,在路径依赖研究之外,历史关节点研究同样重要。本文主要从历史关节点的概念、传统观点、所面临的挑战以及新发展等多个角度对比较政治学研究方法中历史关节点进行梳理和探讨。目前,历史关节点研究在两个方面取得新进展:一是完善历史关节点研究视角,完善历史关节点的分析时间跨度、分析单元以及其他需要关注的问题;二是试图完善如何准确确定历史关节点的方法。此外,本文强调历史关节点必须采用多种案例研究方法,针对研究目的合理选择所要采用的研究方法。最后,如何处理内生性渐进制度变革环境中历史关节点存在与否、如何确定什么是关节点等是需要继续研究的问题。

As one of the important methods in the comparative political science research, historical institutionalism pays special attention to the analysis of the system with time dimension. Based on the assumptions of institutional stability period and institutional change period, historical critical juncture research is equally important as path dependence research. This paper discusses the historical critical juncture from the meaning of historical critical juncture, traditional viewpoints, challenges and new developments. At present, the research on historical critical juncture has made new progress in two aspects : one is to improve the analysis time span of historical critical juncture, the analysis unit and other issues that need attention;the other one is to try to improve accurately determine historical critical juncture method. In addition, this paper emphasizes that historical critical juncture must must use a variety of case study methods. Finally, how to determine the existence or not of historical critical juncture in the environment of endogenous progressive system change, is a problem that needs to be studied.