中国土地城镇化与经济城镇化的协调性研究

A Research on the Coordination of Land Urbanization and Economic Urbanization in China

文章基于城镇化内涵讨论和理论推断的基础上,构建土地城镇化与经济城镇化的协调度模型,检验了大陆31个省份1999-2014年两者协调度的时空变化。研究表明:无论是基于全国各省份还是典型区域分析,土地城镇化与经济城镇化的协调度的实证检验均与理论推断基本吻合,即两者的协调度随着经济发展呈现"倒U型"关系。初期,土地城镇化率先启动,两者协调度较低;之后,经济城镇化逐年赶超土地城镇化,两者协调度逐渐上升直至达到最大;后期,经济城镇化领先于土地城镇化,且两者协调度降低。其演化过程也是城镇建设用地从粗放利用到集约利用的过程。政策含义表明要因地制宜、警惕盲目圈地占地,以避免土地的低水平扩张和低效利用。

This paper constructed the coordinated degree model of land urbanization and economic urbanization based on theconnotation discussion and theoretical reasoning of urbanization, and tested the spatial and temporal changes of their coordinat-ed degree in the mainland＇s 31 provincial-level administrative areas from 1999 to 2014. The results, based on the analysiswhether from the provinces of the country or from the typical regions, show that the empirical findings of coordinated degree be-tween land urbanization and economic urbanization are basically consistent with theories postulate, and the coordinated degreepresents an inverted＂U＂shape along with the economic development. Initially, the land urbanization started earlier and the co-ordinated degree was low. Then, the economic urbanization caught up with the land expansion gradually and the coordinateddegree increased to maximum. Latterly, the economic urbanization got ahead of the land urbanization and the coordinated de-gree reduced. The evolution process is also a process of extensive use to intensive use of urban construction land. Finally, thepaper proposes to adjust measures to local conditions and must be alert on blind enclosure in order to avoid low efficiency landuse and expansion.