中国的公共投资什么时候开始下滑——来自国际历史经验的分析

When Dose China's Public Investment Decline:An International Evidence Study

采用Kamps(2006)所整理的22个OECD国家的公共投资率,进行Bai-Perron结构突变点检验,结果表明,大多数OECD国家都存在下滑的结构突变点。对这些结构突变点进行核密度估计显示,人均GDP达到20 000美元(2005年价格,下同)是一个国家的公共投资率下滑的关键点。由于中国目前的人均GDP远远低于20 000美元,因此,从长期来看,中国的公共投资率还将保持较高的水平。随后,对韩国和台湾地区这两个东亚经济体的历史经验的考察表明,这两个经济体在人均收入大约7 000美元的时候都经历了公共投资率短期下滑的局面,而到了人均收入大约10 000美元的时候又恢复上升。这对考察中国公共投资的未来发展趋势具有一定的借鉴意义。

Using Bai-Perron structural change test to investigate 22 OECD countries＇ public in- vestment rate series calculated by Kamps（2006）, the study shows that most countries have decline points. A kernel estimate of these decline points shows that $ 20,000 per capita （2005 PPP constant） is the critical juncture for the decline of a economy＇ s public investment. Because China＇ s GDP per capita is far from $ 20,000, China＇s public investment rate will keep high level in the long run. Meanwhile, the empirical evidence of South Korea and Taiwan shows that these two economies have both experienced the decline of public investment when GDP per capita is about $ 7,000, then rose up when GDP per capita is about $10,000. These results could provide referential suggestions for the future trend of China＇s public investment.