云南鲁甸县“2014.8.3”地震牛栏江红石岩堰塞湖水文预警指标研究

Study of hydrological early warning indicators-Case in“2014.8.3”earthquake at Hongshiyan of Niulan River,Yunnan Province

红石岩堰塞湖永久性整治期间,水文监测预警对于确保堰塞湖施工企业及下游防洪安全具有重要意义。阐述了牛栏江流域、堰塞湖区域概况及堰塞湖水文预警对象、内容,分析了防护区特征水位并推算至各水文控制断面,按洪水与暴雨同频率,用水位/流量反推法复核相应暴雨量,确定了堰塞湖区域、水文控制断面Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ级各预警级别短历时暴雨量、特征水位、预警时间等水文预警指标,并提出了预警建议,为堰塞湖永久性整治期间有效开展水文监测预警工作、顺利实现超前管理提供参考。

Hydrological early warning system is important to ensure the safety of construction in barrier-lake and flood control at downstream of Hongshiyan during restoration barrier-lake. In this paper, the general situation and hydrological early warning system at Niulan basin are introduced in detail. By analyzing water level at flood protection areas to calculate hydrological river cross-sections, using back-calculating method between water level and flow to reviewed rainstorms, hydrological early warning indicators are determined in barrier-lake area, including shorter duration heavy rainfall, water level and pre-warning time. As a result, the recommendations of effectively development hydrological early warning system are proposed, which can significant contribute to risk management for barrier-lake.