京津冀地区间经济影响及溢出和反馈效应分析

Economic Influences,Spillover Effects and Feedback Effects Among Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

作者在Miller两区域模型的基础上,运用投入产出分析技术分解了三区域模型的区域内乘数效应、区域间溢出效应与反馈效应,进一步探讨了这三种效应间的内在关系。在此基础上,利用2007年中国区域间投入产出表,对京津冀三个区域的区域内乘数效应、区域间溢出效应与反馈效应进行实证分析。计算结果表明,京津冀三地区内乘数效应均远大于溢出效应与反馈效应,即三个地区的产出增长主要是通过内部最终需求和出口的增加而引致的。计算结果说明了京津冀协同发展的必要性。

Based on Miller＇s two-region model, the authors use the Input-Output approach to decompose the multiplier effects, feedback effects and spillover effects of the three-region models, and then put forward a discussion of the inherent relation among the three effects. This paper studies the effects of the multiplier, spillover and feedback among Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China based on the 2007 regional Input-Output Table of China. The result shows that multiplier effects of the three regions are all far greater than the spillover effects and feedback effects, which can explain the increase of three regions＇ economic output mainly depends on the increase of their own final demand and export. The computational result indicates the necessity of the coordinated development of Beijing- Tianjin-Hebei region.