基于基金收支平衡的城镇职工基本养老金调整方案设计

Design on the Basic Pension Adjustment Programs for Urban Workers Based on Fund Balance

目前中国企业退休人员基本养老金的调整属于行政命令式的调整,其科学性和可持续性不足。以不低于物价变动率,同时分享工资增长率的一定比率为原则,设计出六种养老金调整方案,通过构建养老保险基金收支平衡精算模型,测算不同调整方案对养老保险基金短期和长期收支平衡的影响,结果发现：不同的养老金调整方案下养老保险基金短期和长期收支的缺口出现的时间不同,养老基金长期收支将会经历＂生长期＂、＂衰退期＂、＂枯竭期＂三个阶段;为了维持养老基金收支平衡,养老金调整方案的设计必须在三个时期实行实际工资增长率分享比例的动态调整。建议工资增长率的分享比例2015—2034年在100%~60%范围内由高到低浮动,2035—2046年在60%~40%的范围内由高到低浮动,2047年以后在40%以下浮动。

Currently,China＇s basic pension level for enterprise retirees has been raised for consecutive12 years that it is destined to be unsustainable.This paper designed six pension adjustment schemes on the basis of no less than the rate of price change and sharing certain percentage of wage growth.Through establishing actuarial model,it measures the influence of different pension adjustment schemes to the short-term and long-term fund balance of old-age insurance.It is found that as for different pension adjustment schemes the occurring time for short-term and long-term old-age insurance fund gaps are different,and in the long-term the pension fund will experience ＂growing＂, ＂recession＂ and ＂exhausted＂ three stages.In order to maintain the balance of pension fund,in three stages the design of pension adjustment scheme should be implemented dynamic adjustment of sharing certain proportions of real wage growth.It is proposed that the sharing proportions of wage growth float from 100%to 40%in 2015-2034,60%to 40%in 2035-2046,and below 40% since 2047.