基于蒙特卡洛法的大型公共建筑造价风险评估

The Monte Carlo method of large public building's cost risk assessment

针对大型公共建筑前期造价管理薄弱、风险性大等特点,建立了蒙特卡洛法的风险评估模型,并结合工程实例,阐述了该模型在工程造价风险评估中的应用,为投资者合理确定和有效控制项目的前期造价提供理论依据。

According to the large public building Js characteristics of weak cost management and high risk in the early stage, establish the risk assessmentmodel of the Monte Carlom ethod, by combining with the engineering cases, the paper illustrates the application of the model in the engineeringcost risk evaluation. To provide theoretical basis for investors to reasonably determine and effectively control the cost of the project in theearly stage.