中国足球超级联赛主场优势探析

Home Advantage of Chinese Football Association Super League

对团体球类赛事主场优势的研究是国外专家和学者的热点研究问题之一,但对我国职业足球联赛的主场优势研究则相对较少。以2014赛季中国足球超级联赛的所有240场比赛为研究对象,采用独立样本t检验和判别分析的数理统计方法,对此赛季不同实力参赛队在主客场对阵不同实力对手时的22项比赛技战术指标进行分析,对我国职业足球联赛主场优势进行探析。结果显示：1）在2014赛季中国足球超级联赛中,球队在主场取胜的概率比在客场取胜的概率高8.2%～21.7%;2）上游球队对阵上游球队时,主场球队的总射门、传球成功率、射门偏出、传中、角球5项技战术指标高于客场球队（P介于0.006和0.049）;3）上游球队对阵下游球队时,上游球队在主场比在客场完成更多的总射门、射正门球、射门偏出、控球率、总传球、传球成功率、传中、角球（P介于0.000和0.007）;下游球队在主场比客场完成更多的总射门、射门偏出、控球率、传中和角球（P介于0.000和0.019）;4）下游球队对阵下游球队时,主场球队仅在射正门球（P〈0.001）、传中（P〈0.000）两项技战术指标中优于客场球队;5）同等实力球队相互对阵时,对主、客场技战术指标建立的判别函数不具备显著性;上游球队对阵下游球队时,对上游球队主、客场技战术指标建立的判别函数显示射正门球、总传球、被犯规为显著性贡献指标,对下游球队主、客场技战术指标建立的判别函数显示控球率、总传球、传中、失球、黄牌为显著性贡献指标。该研究结果可以为不同实力球队在主、客场比赛中实施技战术策略提供理论参考和借鉴。

Objective： Analysis on the home advantage of team sports has been a hot point in the research of performance analysis. However,the knowledge on the home advantage of Chinese professional football league needs to be expanded.Methods： The current study employed the statistical methods of t-test and discriminant analysis to explore the home advantage of Chinese Football Association Super League（ CSL）. Twenty-two match performance indicators of all the 240 matchers of CSL season 2014 were analyzed. Teams were classified as upper ranked teams（ n = 8） and lower ranked teams（ n = 8） according to the final league table. Results： 1） In the CSL season 2014,teams experienced a higher probability（ 8.2% ～ 21. 7%） of wining in home than in games away from home; 2） When upper ranked teams played against upper ranked teams,home teams achieved more shots,pass accuracy,shots off target,crosses and corners than away teams（ P between 0. 006 and 0. 049）; 3） When upper ranked teams played against lower ranked teams,upper ranked teams made more shots,shots on and off target,ball possession,passes,pass accuracy,crosses and corners when playing at home than playing away（ P between 0. 000 and 0. 007）; lower ranked teams achieved more shots,shots off target,ball possession,crosses and corners when playing at home than playing away（ P between 0. 000 and 0. 019）; 4） When lower ranked teams played with lower ranked teams,home teams merely performed better in shots on target（ P〈0. 001） and crosses（ P〈0. 000） than away teams; 5） Results of discriminant analysis showed that in matches of upper-ranked teams against lower-ranked teams shots on target,total passes and fouls drawn were three indicators that differentiated the home and away performances of upper-ranked teams,whilst ball possession,total passes,crosses,goals concerned and yellowcards were those that discriminated home and away performances of lower-ranked teams. Conclusion： Results from the current study can provide information for coaches of different levels of teams to help them carry out different game strategies at home and matches away from home when facing different levels of opposition.