进城务工人员出行行为及其弹性度分析

Analysis of Travel Behavior and Its Elasticity for Migrant Workers

为研究城市务工人员的出行行为,选取性别、年龄、家庭结构、出行距离等7个因素作为特征变量,以出行链和出行方式作为选择肢,建立了进城务工人员的出行链和出行方式选择的多项Logit模型。通过采集和统计244份西安市进城务工人员的出行样本数据,对模型进行了参数标定以及检验,从而拟合出了出行链和出行方式的选择概率模型,并进一步对各个特征变量对选择模型的影响进行了分析。最后通过引入弹性度概念,对进城务工人员的出行行为进行了弹性度统计分析。研究结果表明:进城务工人员在出行链选择和出行方式的选择上都缺乏弹性,出行行为较为单一。

To study migrant workers＇ travel behavior,multinomial logit models of travel chain choice and travel mode choice were established by taking seven factors as characteristic variables including gender,age,family members,travel distance etc. and travel chain and travel mode as decision variables. The models were calibrated and tested with 244 as sample data on migrant workers＇ travel behavior in Xi＇an. Thus,choice probability models were fitted out and the influence of various characteristic variables impacting the choice models were analyzed. Finally,by introducing the concept of elasticity,the elasticity of the travel behavior for migrant workers was analyzed. The result shows that the travel chain choice and travel mode choice of migrant workers are both lack of elasticity,and their travel behavior is of single-mode.