铁路客运枢纽公共交通安全保障能力变权评价

Variable Weight Evaluation for Public Transportation Security Capacity of Railway Passenger Terminals

现有的客运枢纽公共交通安全保障体系评价大多研究单一灾种,且常采用固定权评价。当客运枢纽中某些安全指标存在缺陷时,会导致评价结果与事实不符,因此,将变权法评价法应用到考虑多灾种的公共交通安全保障体系评价。在全面考虑客运枢纽公共交通安全的影响因素的基础上,结合一致性融合算法确定专家优先度,使用变权法评价枢纽的公共交通安全保障体系的完善程度,最后使用案例证明该方法的有效性、合理性。通过对比固定权法的计算结果,变权法能较好解决公共交通安全评价中固定权评价法存在的问题,同时计算结果也证明了变权评价法评价结果更加贴合实际。

The existing safety assurance evaluation system for hub public passenger transport normally addresses single type of hazard and always uses invariable weighting evaluation method. Where in passenger transportation hub some safety parameters contain defects which cause the inconstance between the evaluation results and reality. A variable weight evaluation method is thus used in the safety assurance system evaluation with consideration of multiple hazard types. On basis of overall consideration of the elements impacting public transport safety,the expert precedence was firstly determined by consistent fusion algorithm; then the variable weight evaluation method was used to evaluate the completeness of the safety assurance system of hub public transport and finally the effectiveness and reasonableness of this method was proved by a practical case.Compared with invariable weight evaluation method with existing problems,variable weight evaluation method can solve those problems existing in safety assurance of public transport meanwhile the calculation results also show that results of evaluation by variable weight method are more close to reality.