新产业安全观下TPP作用机理及中国产业安全应对策略

The TPP's Mechanism and Chinese Solutions Under New Industry Security

长期来看,TPP必定会冲击亚太地区现有贸易格局,带动全球要素域内集中和循环,使域外国家遭受损失。中国产业安全观正由侧重产业控制向产业竞争能力转变。文章以贸易和资本的转移效应为切入点,结合TPP、TISA与WTO的比较分析,探索新产业安全观下TPP的作用机理。TPP条件下中国产业安全面临着诸多挑战:产品出口受阻,传统产业产能过剩愈发严重;FDI流出,潜在溢出效应减弱;投资环境恶化,产业创新"供血"不足;新兴产业与传统产业承接时差拉大。TPP成员国良好的投资环境将促进中国产业结构有效调整和产业升级,推动三次产业均衡发展。破解TPP条件下中国产业安全困局,应进一步维护和开拓海外自由贸易市场,培育和提高产业创新能力。

From TPP＇s economic and political pertinence, it will inevitably impact the existing pattern of trade in the Asia-Pacific region, leading to global elements in the domain of concentration and circulation, which will make the outside countries suffer losses. China is now attaching great importance to the industry safety from industrial control to industrial capacity. This paper uses the transfer effect of trade and capital as the breakthrough point, combined with the comparative analysis of the TPP, TISA and WTO, studies the mechanism of TPP effects. Challenges under TPP are proposed： product export block, traditional industry overcapacity, FDI outflow, potential spillover effects weaken, investment environment deterioration, less support for industrial innovation and disparity between emerging industry and traditional industry. The fine investment environment of TPP will promote Chinese industrial upgrade. To crack the dilemma of Chinese industrial safety, we have to expand more oversea free trade markets, cultivate and promote the industrial innovation.