浙江省循环经济与对外贸易关系的实证研究

Empirical Study of Correlation between Circular Economy and Foreign Trade in Zhejiang Province

本文通过引入进口贸易、出口贸易两个对外贸易指标,基于VAR模型的脉冲响应函数法分析1993-2014年浙江省循环经济与进口贸易、出口贸易之间存在的长期动态的相关性。实证结果表明:浙江省循环经济对进口贸易长期具有显著的消极影响;循环经济对出口贸易有促进作用,但从长期来看,具有一定的负向效应;进口贸易对循环经济会产生负面影响,然而对循环经济长期存在较强的正向效应;出口贸易长期会积极推动循环经济,作出正向贡献。

This paper introduces import trade and export trade as foreign trade indexes, and uses an empirical study of long-term dynamics correlation between circular economy and import trade and export trade in Zhejiang province during 1993-2014 by methods of impulse response function based VAR model. The empirical results are that the circular economy of Zhejiang has significant negative impact on import trade for a long time; the circular economy promotes export trade, but plays a bad role in the long run; import trade blocks the circular economy, but there is a strong positive impact on long-term circular economy; export trade has a significant good effect in the long run which makes the positive contribution.