日本经济走势与经济政策分析（2015~2016财年）

Trend of Japanese economy and analysis on economic policy

自"安倍经济学"实施以来,日本经济经历了短暂的复苏,但仍旧步履维艰。本文回顾2015年以来日本经济在GDP、对外贸易、个人消费支出、CPI变化率和预计的消费税改革等方面的表现,对2016财年及今后日本经济的走势作以展望。今年初,日本银行在量化质化宽松货币政策(QQE)的基础上又推出了负利率政策,配合"安倍经济学"第二阶段的新"三支箭"。在经济低迷、通货紧缩以及社会人口结构失衡的背景下,安倍政府将面临很大的挑战,而日本景气的恢复也前途未卜。只有更好地落实结构性改革的各项措施,日本经济才能根除病灶,面向未来。

Since Abenomics carried out, Japanese economy went through a short recovery, but still faced a lot of difficulties. Looking ahead the tendency of Japanese economy by reviewing its development in the aspects of GDP, foreign trade, personal consumption expenditure, CPI rate of change and projected consumption tax reform, etc. This year, Japanese Banks, on the basis of QQE, implement new negative interest rate policy, coordinated with the new ＂three arrows＂ of the second stage of Abenomics. In condition of economic downturn, deflation and Social population structure imbalance, Andouble administration facing huge challenges while Japanese economy has an ambiguous future. Japanese economy can be completely changed only if various measures of structural reform are brought.