基于灰色系统理论充填体强度预测模型及应用

Forecasting model of filling body strength based on grey system theory and its application

块石胶结充填体抗压强度是矿山充填效果的一个重要指标,分析研究不同块石质量分数下的抗压强度值有利于指导矿山充填。根据室内单轴抗压试验得出的抗压强度值,基于灰色系统理论的GM(1,1)预测模型,得到了块石抗压强度的预测模型表达式及后验差比值0.4102和小误差概率0.8933。结果表明基于灰色系统理论的GM(1,1)预测模型得到的抗压强度表达式是合格的;根据预测模型强度变化规律,可以用于指导块石胶结充填法开采的优化骨料配比,从而提高经济效益。

The compressive strength of blocky rock cemented fill is an important indicator of the effect of filling. The size of the compressive strength of different block stones can be helpful to guide mine filling. According to the compressive strength of sin gle shaft compression test and GM （1, 1） forecasting model based on grey system theory, the prediction model of blocky rock compressive strength is obtained with the error probability posterior difference ratio being 0. 4102 and the small error probability 0. 8933. The results show that the compressive strength of GM （1, 1） prediction model based on grey system theory is qualified and can be used as a prediction model of the compressive strength of different blocks. According to the law of intensity variation of the forecast model, it can be used to guide the optimization of aggregate proportion in the mine with mining by the blocky rock cemented filling method.