中国工业节能:循环经济发展的驱动因素分析

China industrial energy saving: analysis on driving factors of development of circular economy

工业是发展循环经济的关键领域,工业节能则是衡量循环经济发展水平的重要指标。不同的工业行业的能耗效率是不一样的,优化工业结构即增加能耗效率高的行业的比重而降低能耗效率低的行业的比重会产生一定的节能效果;提高工业行业的能耗效率能够产生明显的节能效果,而科技进步则是提高能耗效率的主要途径。循环经济的外部性原理说明,具有正外部性的经济活动因为私人收益小于社会收益,经济活动主体缺乏投资热情,这类经济活动会存在发展动力不足的现象。工业节能如果是存在正外部性的经济活动,则也会存在发展动力不足现象。工业节能的正外部性会表现在工业节能和工业的利润总额之间的关系上,即工业节能并不能促进工业利润总额的增长,两者甚至会有负相关关系。在上述论断的基础上,本研究分析中国工业结构变动的节能效果以及工业节能和工业利润总额的关系。方便起见,将工业节能的途径区分为结构调整节能和循环经济节能两类,分别探讨两类途径对中国工业节能的作用。依据循环经济与科技变革之间的关系,将工业行业分为A类循环经济行业和B类循环经济行业,并推断A类行业的节能量同利润总额存在相互促进的关系,B类则呈负相关,进而运用面板数据分析技术验证上述论断。如果工业节能具有正外部性,则B类循环经济行业应该明显多于A类。研究结果表明:从2006年至2013年,中国工业结构调整的节能效果非常微弱,中国工业节能主要是通过发展循环经济而取得的;循环经济具有正外部性,大多数行业的节能量与利润总额呈负相关关系;A类和B类工业行业循环经济发展水平和发展动力存在明显差异;科技进步在循环经济发展过程中发挥着决定性的作用。本研究建议,政府在推进工业节能工作的时候,应实施有差别的产业政策,相比于A类循环经济行业,对B类循环经济行业应给予更多政策优惠;提供循环经济补助资金和发展循环经济公共技术是提高工业节能效果的两大重要政策工具。

Industry is the key areas for the development of circular economy. Industrial energy saving is one of the most important indicators for assessing circular economy level. Different industrial sectors have different energy efficiencies. Optimization of industrial structure, which raises the share of industrial sectors whose energy efficiency is high and cuts down the share of industrial sectors whose energy efficiency is low, can be desirable in energy saving effect. Improvement of energy efficiency of industry can also produce obvious energy saving effect, and scientific and technological progress is the principal pathway for the improvement of energy efficiency. The externality theory of circular economy indicates that economic activity entities lack willingness to invest because private benefit is less than social benefit for economic activities with positive externality, and the core problem for this kind of economic activity lies in the insufficiency of development powers. Industrial energy saving also has this problem if it belongs to economic activity with positive externality. The positive externality for industrial energy saving will be embodied in the relationship between amount of industrial energy saving and industrial total profit, which can be expressed as that, industrial energy saving cannot raise the industrial total profit and even cut clown its scale. On the basis of this argument mentioned above, this paper discusses the energy saving effect of optimization of industrial structure and the relationship between amount of industrial energy saving and industrial total profit. For convenience sake, this paper classifies the approaches of energy saving as two types ： energy saving of construction adjustment and energy saving of circular economy, and analyzes the effects of two approaches on the energy saving of China＇s industry. According to the relation of scientific and technological progress and circular economy, industry circular economy is classified into two types ： A and B. Type A is those industries whose scientific and technological progress is incorporated into circular economy perfectly ; type B is those industries whose scientific and technological progress and circular economy do not well combined together. This paper deduces that ： for type A, there is a positive correlation between quantity of energy saving and quantity of total profits ; for type B, there is a negative correlation between them. Panel data analysis model is employed to verify our deduction mentioned previously. The number of industrial sectors which belong to type B is obviously more than type A if industrial energy saving belongs to economic activities with positive externality. Research resuhs indicate that： the effect of energy saving through industrial construction adjustment is weak, the performance of China＇s industrial energy saving is mainly achieved through the development of circular economy. Circular economy has positive externalities. For most industries, there is a negative correlation between quantity of saving and quantity of total profit; there is a huge gap among different industries in the development level of circular economy and development force. Scientific and technological progress plays a dominant role in the development of circular economy. This paper suggests that ： for the progress of industrial energy saving, compared with type A industrial sectors, government should pay more attention to type B industrial sectors and give them more preferential Policies. Providing assistance funds and common techniques of circular economy are two important policy instruments.