城镇化与工业化对能源强度影响的实证研究——基于截面相关和异质性回归系数的非平衡面板数据模型

An empirical research on the effects of urbanization and industrialization on energy intensity

城镇化、工业化对中国能源强度的影响如何?如何在快速推进城镇化、工业化进程的同时确保节能减排目标的实现?论文以能源强度指标代替传统的能源消费指标来反映能源综合利用效率,并应用考虑截面相关性和异质性回归系数的非平衡面板数据模型,使用共同相关效应组均值(CCEMG)估计方法对中国1978-2014年城镇化、工业化与能源强度之间的关系进行分析。研究结果表明:人均实际GDP增长1%,能源强度将会降低0.412%,工业化水平增长1%,能源强度将会上升0.630%,而由于生产消费等经济活动的增加、高度集中化以及规模经济的综合作用,使得城镇化对能源强度的影响并不确定。联系研究结论,本文提出政策建议:我国应加快产业结构升级,转变经济增长方式;构建绿色制造体系,推进"五化"协同发展;推进绿色、循环、低碳发展的新型城镇化建设,提高城镇化质量,提升我国整体的能源效率,确保节能减排目标的实现,推动经济全面、协调、可持续发展。

What are the effects of urbanization and industrialization on the energy intensity in China？ How to ensure the realization of energy conservation and the reduction of emissions targets in the process of urbanization and industrialization？ Against the backdrop of studies on relationship between urbanization and energy consumption, by replacing the traditional energy consumption with energy intensity indicator which reflects the efficiency of energy use, the paper applies the unbalanced panel data models with cross-section dependence and heterogeneous slopes to analyze the relationship urbanization, industrialization and energy intensity in 1978 -2014. As a result, a 1% increase in real GDP per capita reduces energy intensity by 0. 412%. A 1% increase in industrialization increases energy intensity by 0. 630%. However, due to the effect of both highly centralized economic activity and scale economy, the impact of urbanization on energy intensity is uncertain. In conclusion, the implications of these results for energy policy are discussed. The government should upgrade industrial structure, promote fundamental shifts in the mode of economic growth, and construct the green manufacturing industry system, promote collaborative development, promote the construction of new towns in green, recycling, low- carbon development, and ensure the realization of energy conservation and the reduction of emissions targets, in order to promote all- round, balanced and sustainable development of economy and society.