旅游需求波动、风险管理与非线性减贫效应研究

Tourism demand fluctuation,risk management and non-linear poverty reduction effect

旅游发展能够有效匹配贫困人口的资源禀赋,是产业扶贫的重要支撑。为更好地发挥旅游的减贫效用,本文基于旅游波动和风险管理视角对旅游发展与贫困减缓的多样化关联进行了逻辑统一,在使用HP滤波方法测度旅游需求波动的基础上,使用门限面板模型对2000-2013年中国旅游发展的非线性减贫效应进行了实证检验。实证结果显示:旅游波动是影响旅游发展减贫效应的重要因素,但国内旅游波动和入境旅游波动的减贫效应存在异质性。国内旅游波动主要体现为上行波动,能够在增长的稳定预期下,有助于旅游企业和包括贫困人口在内的旅游从业者进行专业化供给,从而有助于减贫。旅游发展的减贫效应体现出双门限的非线性特征,在旅游发展的初始阶段,并未能体现出显著的减贫效果,越过第一个门限值后,旅游减贫效应开始凸显,但在第二门限值之后,处于第三阶段旅游发展减贫弹性递减。因此,旅游产业具备成为阶段性重要减贫动力来源的潜力,但在旅游扶贫政策的制定和实施中,应秉持辩证和动态视角,当意识到旅游减贫效应已经步入递减区间时,要进行主动、系统、综合的风险管理。理解外部环境变化对旅游发展冲击的潜在结果,通过旅游需求结构和产业结构的调整提升贫困人口应对风险冲击的韧性,并通过互助、保险等风险应对手段,促进资源在不同风险状态之间的转移,提升旅游减贫绩效。

Tourism development can match up with the endowment of poverty efficiently. Government officials usually regard tourism as an important industry for poverty reduction. In order to produce the best possible results of tourism on poverty reduction, this paper unifies the diversity relationship between tourism development and poverty reduction logically based on the perspective of demand fluctuation and risk management. It also uses threshold panel model to test the non-linear poverty reduction effect of China＇ s tourism development in the period of 2000-2013. HP filtering method is also used to catchup the tourism demand fluctuation. The empirical evidence shows that： tourism fluctuation can influence the poverty reduction effect of tourism significantly. However, the poverty reduction effect of domestic tourism fluctuation and inbound tourism fluctuation is heterogeneity. Domestic tourism mainly appears to represent upstream fluctuation, which can promote tourism specialization and contribute to poverty reduction. However, inbound tourism coexists upstream fluctuation and downstream fluctuation. Poverty people have to pay trade cost to prevent the fluctuation risk which will reduce the poverty reduction efficiency of tourism. The poor will take max-rain strategy to prevent and mitigate risks. In other words, the poor people choose poverty on the safe side. The non-linear poverty reduction effect of tourism has two thresholds which can divide the effect to three stages. Tourism cannot achieve poverty reduction significantly until tourism development surpasses the first threshold. But the poverty reduction effect will decrease in the third stage when tourism development surpasses the second threshold. So, tourism has the potential to be the significant poverty reduction motivator in the certain stage. However, we need to judge the poverty reduction effect of tourism dialectically and dynamic@ when we set and implement poverty reduction policy. Active, systematic and integrated risk management is a profitable complementary tool of poverty reduction policy. Right now, the poverty reduction efficiency of tourism development is decreasing in the most provinces. We should improve the ability of the poor to encounter with the fluctuation shocks. The anti-poverty policy may focus on tourism fluctuation intervention by mutual assistance and insurance to redistribute income and loss in different risk stage, which will improve the poverty reduction efficiency of tourism development.