基于系统动力学的三峡大坝通航风险演化研究

Research on navigation risk evolution in Three Gorges dam area based on system dynamics

为深入研究三峡坝区船舶通航风险的演化过程,通过分析三峡大坝通航风险与其影响因素间的因果关系和影响函数,构建三峡坝区船舶通航风险演化的系统动力学(SD)模型,并运用Vensim软件模拟各因素影响下的船舶通航风险演变过程。仿真结果表明:当能见度、交通流密度、船员操作准确度、船舶设备故障率中某一影响因素恶化时,可以通过通航监管对其进行控制,从而降低由该因素带来的额外风险;随着影响因素恶化,坝区船舶通航风险将不同程度地增大,其中船员操作准确度影响最大。

In order to further study the evolution process of ship traffic risk in the Three Gorges dam area, by analyzing causal relationship between factors and function, a SD model was built for risk evolution, and Vensim software was used to simulate the evolution. The simulation results show that a deterioration in one of the factors, including visibility, traffic density, failure rate of crew operating and failure rate of ship equipment, can be controlled by navigation regulation to reduce the additional risk caused by this factor, that with deteriorations in the factors, navigation risk will be increased, and that the facfor,which has the biggest effect on the risk, is failure rate of crew operation.