基于N-K模型的地铁施工安全风险耦合研究

Research on coupling of safety risks in metro construction based on N-K model

为研究地铁施工安全风险管理中的风险概率变化情况,对影响地铁施工安全的人为、设备、管理和环境等因素进行风险耦合分析,构建基于复杂网络的N-K模型,计算不同风险耦合情况发生的概率和风险值。结果表明,多因素风险耦合会增加事故发生的概率,主观因素(人为因素和管理因素)风险完全耦合比不完全耦合造成的风险大;主观因素与环境因素完全耦合最容易引起安全事故。

To study metro construction safety risk management and probability of accidents because of interaction between various risk factors, coupling was analyzed from the aspects of personnel factors, equipment factors, management factors and environmental factors. And an N-K model was built to calculate the number and frequence of risk coupling eveuts. The result shows that multi-factor risk coupling increases the probability of accident, that safety risks increase when human factors and management factors involve in risk coupling. The conclusions can provide reference for improving metro construction safety management.